Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230223 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  30.5  36.5  36.3  38.2  42.0  33.8  29.1  U  N  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   6.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  58.0  58.0  51.0  46.1  46.1  34.4  29.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  47.0  65.0  55.0  28.0  39.0  11.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0 -14.0 -20.0 -22.0 -14.0  -9.0  -4.0  F  F VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        1.6%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        2.4%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        1.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        1.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        1.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.66

 SH142023 230223 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.