Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230224 18UTC Storm Located at : -23.40 69.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 37.4 38.3 43.9 33.6 31.6 26.0 35.1 VU U U VU U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.7 62.7 59.3 56.1 50.0 43.0 41.7 47.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 20.0 23.0 18.0 -25.0 -53.0 -25.0 7.0 U U U U VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 45.0 43.0 42.0 37.0 37.0 33.0 33.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -16.0 -11.0 -10.0 -10.0 -1.0 -3.0 6.0 VF VF F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.50 SH142023 230224 18UTC Storm Located at : -23.40 69.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.