Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230225 00UTC Storm Located at : -24.20 69.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.7 40.1 43.1 38.3 31.8 27.5 27.4 39.0 U U VU U U N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 72.7 71.0 64.6 55.8 50.4 54.4 66.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 12.0 23.0 -1.0 -36.0 -35.0 15.0 16.0 U U U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 42.0 42.0 39.0 43.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -10.0 -12.0 -14.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 3.0 VF F F VF F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.52 SH142023 230225 00UTC Storm Located at : -24.20 69.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.