Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230225 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.00     68.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.1  44.6  41.6  36.1  31.2  27.2  34.4  38.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  76.0  72.7  69.6  60.8  60.8  72.7  81.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  32.0 -11.0 -19.0 -23.0 -31.0  -9.0   0.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  35.0  36.0  34.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0 -13.0  -9.0   2.0  -4.0   4.0   5.0  F  F VF  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 SH142023 230225 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.00     68.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.