Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.70     68.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  44.1  37.8  29.4  28.8  29.4  40.4  42.8 VU VU  U  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  72.7  71.1  65.0  59.4  65.0  76.0  81.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0 -26.0  -7.0 -44.0 -48.0   9.0 -10.0 -13.0  U VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  40.0  37.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  29.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  10.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.32

 SH142023 230225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.70     68.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.