Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.40     67.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  34.4  33.7  33.0  30.4  40.3  47.2  47.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  67.2  67.2  65.8  67.2  74.6  79.3  82.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -9.0 -18.0 -54.0 -11.0 -13.0  -7.0 -16.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  39.0  37.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.70

 SH142023 230226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.40     67.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.