Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230226 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.00     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.1  38.0  38.1  28.1  31.8  40.5  52.5  53.2 VU  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.8  68.0  66.7  65.4  68.0  73.6  76.5  79.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -18.0 -54.0 -38.0 -11.0  -3.0   4.0  -8.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  35.0  34.0  38.0  35.0  34.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   6.0   6.0   9.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 SH142023 230226 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.00     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.