Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230226 12UTC Storm Located at : -28.70 66.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.4 34.3 34.4 32.7 39.6 50.9 51.7 50.7 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 73.0 73.0 73.0 78.6 84.6 91.0 98.0 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -27.0 -45.0 -22.0 -21.0 4.0 -9.0 -24.0 -58.0 VU VU VU VU U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 38.0 40.0 41.0 40.0 33.0 31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.36 SH142023 230226 12UTC Storm Located at : -28.70 66.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.