Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230227 06UTC Storm Located at : -29.20 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.4 34.6 40.8 44.2 50.5 46.1 61.2 57.4 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.0 69.4 70.8 73.6 78.0 84.3 81.1 68.0 U U U U N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -15.0 5.0 -18.0 -32.0 -29.0 -32.0 -22.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 39.0 41.0 34.0 34.0 31.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.44 SH142023 230227 06UTC Storm Located at : -29.20 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.