Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230227 18UTC Storm Located at : -28.60 67.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.7 42.5 50.9 53.7 43.4 42.9 33.9 30.2 U VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.8 67.2 70.0 73.0 82.7 88.0 82.7 70.0 U U U U N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 0.0 5.0 -4.0 -8.0 -21.0 -11.0 34.0 U U U U U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 36.0 32.0 29.0 26.0 20.0 23.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 6.0 5.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.66 SH142023 230227 18UTC Storm Located at : -28.60 67.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.