Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230228 00UTC Storm Located at : -28.10 67.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.1 50.3 56.3 51.6 51.5 52.2 43.7 42.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.0 63.0 64.4 65.8 70.0 74.6 64.4 53.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -37.0 -31.0 -29.0 -15.0 -25.0 -15.0 17.0 42.0 VU VU VU U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 37.0 35.0 33.0 27.0 26.0 32.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 7.0 4.0 1.0 -8.0 -10.0 -16.0 N N N N N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.36 SH142023 230228 00UTC Storm Located at : -28.10 67.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.