Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230228 06UTC Storm Located at : -27.60 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.1 53.9 49.5 45.9 54.2 50.9 44.2 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.0 69.4 70.8 72.2 76.5 72.2 62.9 49.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -35.0 -11.0 -7.0 -11.0 2.0 32.0 12.0 VU VU U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 33.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 25.0 36.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 6.0 4.0 6.0 0.0 -10.0 -14.0 -21.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.40 SH142023 230228 06UTC Storm Located at : -27.60 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.