Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230228 12UTC Storm Located at : -27.20 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.2 51.1 46.5 48.1 47.9 38.3 32.6 32.6 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 75.8 78.6 80.0 89.3 87.7 75.8 63.2 U U N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -8.0 13.0 15.0 -15.0 19.0 26.0 34.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 31.0 29.0 25.0 24.0 28.0 42.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -9.0 -10.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.54 SH142023 230228 12UTC Storm Located at : -27.20 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.