Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.60     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.9  44.8  46.6  52.1  52.1  52.1  52.1  52.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  80.0  83.0  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0  17.0  18.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  30.0  27.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.84

 SH142023 230228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.60     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.