Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142023 230301 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.20     68.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  47.7  50.8  54.5  44.6  47.2  42.1  46.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  85.0  83.6  85.0  79.4  70.5  60.7  48.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  24.0 -21.0   4.0  27.0  50.0  36.0  -9.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   31.0  29.0  27.0  29.0  33.0  43.0  43.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 -41.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.72

 SH142023 230301 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.20     68.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.