Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230301 06UTC Storm Located at : -25.90 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.4 47.9 48.1 44.8 43.1 34.2 36.2 36.2 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5 81.7 69.8 61.8 61.8 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 -11.0 -11.0 -16.0 15.0 42.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 33.0 31.0 32.0 31.0 41.0 49.0 50.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 -1.0 -6.0 -7.0 -24.0 -16.0 -16.0 N N N F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.88 SH142023 230301 06UTC Storm Located at : -25.90 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.