Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142023 230301 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.30 68.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.7 52.9 50.0 45.8 43.2 34.4 36.4 33.5 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.8 87.2 84.4 83.0 74.3 64.7 52.6 36.3 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -48.0 -26.0 5.0 55.0 12.0 50.0 62.0 66.0 VU VU U N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 27.0 28.0 32.0 38.0 53.0 56.0 49.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -7.0 -7.0 -12.0 -26.0 -41.0 -61.0 N F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.48 SH142023 230301 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.30 68.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.