Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230227 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.80 169.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 25.3 22.7 22.8 21.1 39.7 38.2 43.5 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 151.0 140.0 131.0 105.0 46.0 31.0 19.0 13.0 VF VF VF F N U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 110.7 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 58.0 74.0 85.0 114.0 125.0 94.0 81.0 N N N F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 80.0 82.0 85.0 86.0 74.0 62.0 57.0 F F F F F N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -15.0 -17.0 -16.0 -26.0 N N N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.5% 15.6% 14.6% 25kt / 24h 55.1% 66.6% 60.8% 30kt / 24h 34.1% 49.4% 41.7% 35kt / 24h 27.0% 48.3% 37.7% 40kt / 24h 5.7% 46.2% 25.9% 45kt / 36h 42.5% 73.3% 57.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 54.3% 27.1% 55kt / 48h 46.8% 41.2% 44.0% 70kt / 48h 24.7% 35.8% 30.3% 65kt / 72h 28.0% 29.2% 28.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.00 SH152023 230227 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.80 169.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 25.3 22.7 22.8 21.1 39.7 38.2 43.5 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 80.0 82.0 85.0 86.0 74.0 62.0 57.0 U U U U U N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -15.0 -17.0 -16.0 -26.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%