Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230227 12UTC Storm Located at : -13.50 169.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.2 24.9 23.5 21.4 32.8 40.9 41.5 54.5 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 155.0 124.0 111.0 83.0 39.0 25.0 21.0 1.0 VF F F N U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 99.4 81.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 96.0 64.0 90.0 157.0 114.0 77.0 139.0 N F N F VF F N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 77.0 80.0 83.0 81.0 77.0 69.0 63.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 -12.0 -22.0 -10.0 -39.0 -25.0 N F F F VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.0% 16.8% 17.4% 25kt / 24h 55.0% 64.1% 59.5% 30kt / 24h 36.9% 46.6% 41.7% 35kt / 24h 26.3% 45.6% 35.9% 40kt / 24h 10.1% 44.7% 27.4% 45kt / 36h 39.9% 58.0% 49.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 33.8% 16.9% 55kt / 48h 34.6% 25.4% 30.0% 70kt / 48h 19.1% 19.0% 19.0% 65kt / 72h 15.8% 13.8% 14.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.96 SH152023 230227 12UTC Storm Located at : -13.50 169.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.2 24.9 23.5 21.4 32.8 40.9 41.5 54.5 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 77.0 80.0 83.0 81.0 77.0 69.0 63.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 -12.0 -22.0 -10.0 -39.0 -25.0 N U U U VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%