Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230227 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.60 169.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 19.5 15.9 13.6 24.0 41.3 49.9 54.8 N N F F N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 145.0 92.0 46.0 24.0 27.0 20.0 8.0 0.0 VF F N U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 94.4 79.4 63.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 117.0 118.0 140.0 163.0 147.0 115.0 110.0 154.0 F F VF VF VF F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 80.0 84.0 84.0 81.0 76.0 70.0 59.0 F F F F F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -2.0 -2.0 -10.0 -18.0 -30.0 -32.0 -30.0 N N N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 27.2% 22.1% 24.7% 25kt / 24h 72.1% 76.4% 74.3% 30kt / 24h 51.0% 65.2% 58.1% 35kt / 24h 33.2% 65.2% 49.2% 40kt / 24h 29.2% 64.2% 46.7% 45kt / 36h 54.2% 68.6% 61.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 46.9% 23.4% 55kt / 48h 43.4% 33.8% 38.6% 70kt / 48h 23.7% 26.3% 25.0% 65kt / 72h 12.5% 9.8% 11.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.72 SH152023 230227 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.60 169.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 19.5 15.9 13.6 24.0 41.3 49.9 54.8 N N U U N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 80.0 84.0 84.0 81.0 76.0 70.0 59.0 U U U U U U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -2.0 -2.0 -10.0 -18.0 -30.0 -32.0 -30.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%