Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230228 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.00 168.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 86.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 19.1 18.0 25.6 35.0 38.3 55.5 56.4 N N F N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 121.0 79.0 43.0 41.0 29.0 13.0 6.0 0.0 F N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 87.4 71.0 57.2 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 131.0 155.0 172.0 97.0 85.0 152.0 146.0 F F VF VF F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 83.0 83.0 81.0 79.0 74.0 71.0 67.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -36.0 -48.0 -53.0 F F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.4% 24.1% 28.3% 25kt / 24h 72.6% 74.7% 73.6% 30kt / 24h 48.9% 65.8% 57.3% 35kt / 24h 35.8% 65.8% 50.8% 40kt / 24h 29.1% 63.0% 46.0% 45kt / 36h 40.2% 53.0% 46.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 29.2% 14.6% 55kt / 48h 23.7% 20.2% 22.0% 70kt / 48h 6.3% 13.4% 9.9% 65kt / 72h 2.4% 5.4% 3.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 SH152023 230228 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.00 168.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 19.1 18.0 25.6 35.0 38.3 55.5 56.4 N N N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 83.0 83.0 81.0 79.0 74.0 71.0 67.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -36.0 -48.0 -53.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%