Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230228 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.60 168.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 67.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 15.4 16.5 28.6 39.0 50.3 54.1 60.0 N F F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 102.0 68.0 44.0 36.0 29.0 5.0 7.0 0.0 F N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.3 68.0 57.7 36.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 146.0 155.0 158.0 134.0 111.0 123.0 120.0 109.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 83.0 82.0 81.0 75.0 66.0 59.0 55.0 F F F F F N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -9.0 -15.0 -24.0 -37.0 -42.0 -51.0 -63.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 71.0% 55.3% 63.1% 25kt / 24h 92.9% 88.2% 90.5% 30kt / 24h 83.2% 87.1% 85.2% 35kt / 24h 77.9% 87.1% 82.5% 40kt / 24h 60.0% 85.6% 72.8% 45kt / 36h 59.9% 67.3% 63.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 46.8% 23.4% 55kt / 48h 22.8% 22.6% 22.7% 70kt / 48h 8.1% 17.4% 12.7% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 4.8% 3.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 SH152023 230228 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.60 168.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 15.4 16.5 28.6 39.0 50.3 54.1 60.0 N U N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 83.0 82.0 81.0 75.0 66.0 59.0 55.0 U U U U U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -9.0 -15.0 -24.0 -37.0 -42.0 -51.0 -63.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%