Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230228 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.50 168.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 76.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 30.4 35.7 37.9 31.6 42.6 56.1 65.9 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 42.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 80.1 49.3 43.0 22.0 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 143.0 136.0 136.0 99.0 51.0 107.0 150.0 118.0 VF VF VF F N F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 83.0 80.0 72.0 64.0 61.0 67.0 70.0 VF F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -10.0 -10.0 -26.0 -34.0 -50.0 -55.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 79.2% 47.1% 63.2% 25kt / 24h 79.6% 72.2% 75.9% 30kt / 24h 71.3% 69.4% 70.3% 35kt / 24h 71.3% 69.4% 70.3% 40kt / 24h 55.0% 67.3% 61.1% 45kt / 36h 42.0% 35.2% 38.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 16.1% 8.1% 55kt / 48h 6.6% 7.9% 7.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 SH152023 230228 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.50 168.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 30.4 35.7 37.9 31.6 42.6 56.1 65.9 N N F F N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 83.0 80.0 72.0 64.0 61.0 67.0 70.0 VU U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -10.0 -10.0 -26.0 -34.0 -50.0 -55.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%