Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230301 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.20 168.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 93.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 30.2 29.1 34.2 44.9 48.8 38.8 51.6 N N N U VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 21.0 17.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.0 70.0 62.3 55.7 31.0 15.8 6.7 -9.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 115.0 112.0 123.0 111.0 114.0 133.0 108.0 102.0 F F F F F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 73.0 70.0 66.0 62.0 65.0 61.0 56.0 F N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -19.0 -25.0 -26.0 -40.0 -53.0 -42.0 -9.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 60.9% 19.6% 40.3% 25kt / 24h 47.9% 34.7% 41.3% 30kt / 24h 30.4% 28.3% 29.4% 35kt / 24h 30.4% 28.3% 29.4% 40kt / 24h 24.4% 25.4% 24.9% 45kt / 36h 32.2% 9.9% 21.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.50 SH152023 230301 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.20 168.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 30.2 29.1 34.2 44.9 48.8 38.8 51.6 N N N F VF VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 73.0 70.0 66.0 62.0 65.0 61.0 56.0 U N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -19.0 -25.0 -26.0 -40.0 -53.0 -42.0 -9.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.9% 0.6% 2.3%