Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230301 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 169.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 90.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.6 30.3 34.9 36.2 39.8 42.7 49.5 61.3 U N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 22.0 15.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.0 50.1 37.4 24.4 8.6 5.8 -15.3 -20.9 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 125.0 129.0 108.0 96.0 123.0 110.0 103.0 81.0 F F F F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 66.0 66.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 62.0 55.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -27.0 -28.0 -23.0 -39.0 -42.0 -10.0 -5.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 45.0% 10.3% 27.6% 25kt / 24h 18.6% 10.5% 14.5% 30kt / 24h 10.4% 6.3% 8.4% 35kt / 24h 10.1% 6.3% 8.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 SH152023 230301 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 169.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.6 30.3 34.9 36.2 39.8 42.7 49.5 61.3 N N F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 66.0 66.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 62.0 55.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -27.0 -28.0 -23.0 -39.0 -42.0 -10.0 -5.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.1% 2.1% 5.6%