Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230301 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.20 170.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 28.5 36.9 46.5 55.1 67.9 81.3 100.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 18.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.6 36.5 24.8 12.7 3.6 -3.3 -21.3 -27.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 103.0 109.0 138.0 141.0 152.0 111.0 114.0 54.0 F F VF VF VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 59.0 44.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -22.0 -17.0 -32.0 -37.0 -36.0 -21.0 -18.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 25.0% 5.5% 15.2% 25kt / 24h 6.1% 3.3% 4.7% 30kt / 24h 3.2% 1.4% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 SH152023 230301 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.20 170.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 28.5 36.9 46.5 55.1 67.9 81.3 100.0 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 59.0 44.0 N N N N N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -22.0 -17.0 -32.0 -37.0 -36.0 -21.0 -18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.4% 4.3% 3.9%