Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152023 230302 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20    174.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  56.6  63.1  61.4  70.1  88.9 105.4  84.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.7  35.0  35.0  33.6  22.9  18.2  13.8   8.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 135.0 133.0 107.0  94.0  52.0  39.0  -8.0  F VF VF  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  61.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -50.0 -55.0 -31.0 -35.0 -27.0 -23.0  -6.0  15.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 SH152023 230302 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20    174.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.