Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152023 230302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.00    176.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.8  65.2  63.2  68.8  80.6  86.2  93.3  74.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.6  36.5  30.8  26.7  25.4  22.9  20.5   9.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   126.0 122.0 114.0 103.0 106.0  40.0  32.0  -9.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  68.0  74.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -38.0 -28.0 -40.0 -36.0 -15.0  14.0   3.0  -9.0 VF VF VF VF VF  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.78

 SH152023 230302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.00    176.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.