Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152023 230303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.50    177.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.0  70.0  71.4  69.3  87.9  98.7  80.4  56.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  40.0  34.4  38.6  30.4  34.4  37.2  30.4  U  U VU  U VU VU  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 121.0 126.0 119.0  86.0  77.0  34.0  -8.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  62.0  68.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -42.0 -46.0 -25.0 -22.0 -23.0   1.0  -3.0 -16.0 VF VF VF VF VF  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.80

 SH152023 230303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.50    177.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.