Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152023 230303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.10    179.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.6  65.0  64.9  71.7  88.2  92.9  67.2  64.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  55.0  64.3  55.0  49.4  56.5  46.7  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 113.0 132.0 115.0  44.0  44.0   9.0 -33.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0 -25.0 -22.0 -13.0  -7.0  20.0   0.0  -7.0 VF VF VF VF  F VU  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.06

 SH152023 230303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.10    179.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.