Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230303 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.50 183.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 62.7 63.1 67.1 76.6 87.3 78.7 69.6 69.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.0 78.0 60.0 60.0 67.7 57.2 47.9 47.9 U N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 95.0 94.0 57.0 17.0 22.0 -50.0 -28.0 F F F N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 69.0 69.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -9.0 -31.0 -17.0 13.0 5.0 -2.0 17.0 F F VF VF U N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.26 SH152023 230303 12UTC Storm Located at : -26.50 183.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.