Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230303 18UTC Storm Located at : -27.10 185.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.1 67.1 72.2 84.6 89.0 72.6 68.5 65.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.0 61.5 60.0 67.7 50.4 34.7 43.2 40.9 N U U U U VU U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 77.0 38.0 -5.0 4.0 -8.0 -25.0 -10.0 F N N U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 66.0 70.0 64.0 71.0 69.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -24.0 -10.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 15.0 56.0 VF VF F N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.24 SH152023 230303 18UTC Storm Located at : -27.10 185.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.