Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152023 230304 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.70    187.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        66.1  77.1  82.5  93.3  96.1  84.0  70.8  71.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.6  56.7  58.0  59.4  42.7  36.8  44.8  36.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  37.0  -3.0  21.0  31.0  16.0  34.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0  -8.0   6.0  10.0 -30.0 -14.0 -24.0 -23.0 VF  F  N  U VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.66

 SH152023 230304 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.70    187.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.