Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230304 12UTC Storm Located at : -28.20 192.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 84.4 84.8 82.6 79.8 82.6 75.6 61.9 67.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.6 80.0 64.3 54.7 45.0 51.8 52.8 62.0 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 6.0 -11.0 1.0 -2.0 30.0 -14.0 13.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 61.0 61.0 63.0 56.0 53.0 57.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -9.0 -21.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 41.0 26.0 N F VF N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.06 SH152023 230304 12UTC Storm Located at : -28.20 192.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.