Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152023 230304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.50    194.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        87.6  85.2  93.4  86.0  77.3  76.2  62.7  58.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  60.5  53.8  45.0  44.1  51.7  48.7  54.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   2.0  44.0  56.0  -9.0  30.0  -7.0  -5.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  51.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -30.0 -25.0 -24.0 -10.0 -25.0 -29.0   9.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.68

 SH152023 230304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.50    194.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.