Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230305 00UTC Storm Located at : -28.30 196.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 87.0 94.5 90.9 86.2 75.8 60.3 57.2 56.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.6 64.3 57.7 49.1 50.0 58.8 59.8 57.7 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 27.0 46.0 14.0 21.0 -16.0 -20.0 -27.0 U U N U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 61.0 63.0 57.0 47.0 46.0 43.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -41.0 -37.0 -33.0 -60.0 -45.0 -41.0 -3.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.70 SH152023 230305 00UTC Storm Located at : -28.30 196.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.