Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172023 230330 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  28.6  27.7  24.3  22.3  21.6  22.2  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  32.0  27.0  19.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 104.6 102.3  97.9  95.7  93.6  91.5  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  17.0  10.0  33.0 -22.0 -14.0   0.0  15.0  U  U  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.1%       14.3%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       23.3%       40.8%       32.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.0%       31.4%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       31.4%       23.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.0%       29.1%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.4%       30.9%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.7%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        9.9%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        5.8%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        6.7%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 SH172023 230330 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  28.6  27.7  24.3  22.3  21.6  22.2  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%