Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172023 230330 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.40 105.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 22.7 24.1 23.2 23.1 28.8 28.4 34.9 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 18.0 10.0 5.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.5 53.6 53.6 55.7 53.6 45.5 36.2 36.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 31.0 18.0 9.0 -14.0 -11.0 8.0 21.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 52.0 45.0 44.0 41.0 35.0 27.0 26.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -7.0 -5.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 46.3% 13.7% 30.0% 25kt / 24h 19.6% 20.6% 20.1% 30kt / 24h 18.4% 16.9% 17.6% 35kt / 24h 18.4% 16.9% 17.6% 40kt / 24h 16.1% 15.2% 15.6% 45kt / 36h 30.5% 14.9% 22.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.68 SH172023 230330 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.40 105.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 22.7 24.1 23.2 23.1 28.8 28.4 34.9 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 52.0 45.0 44.0 41.0 35.0 27.0 26.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -7.0 -5.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7%