Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172023 230331 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 106.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 40.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 29.5 34.7 37.5 48.4 49.6 51.5 57.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.6 33.6 31.5 29.4 21.6 16.2 11.0 3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 64.0 23.0 0.0 -9.0 21.0 19.0 39.0 N N U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 49.0 49.0 45.0 41.0 35.0 30.0 27.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 F N N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.0% 3.9% 12.5% 25kt / 24h 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 SH172023 230331 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 106.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 40.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 29.5 34.7 37.5 48.4 49.6 51.5 57.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 49.0 49.0 45.0 41.0 35.0 30.0 27.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 U N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 13.9% 7.0%