Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172023 230331 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  28.3  29.7  33.1  36.1  43.8  48.9  54.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  12.0  11.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.4  12.4  12.4  10.5   3.0  -5.7 -10.4 -15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  10.0   4.0   0.0  -6.0  18.0  21.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 SH172023 230331 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.