Rapid Intensification Guidance SH172023 230403 00UTC Storm Located at : -19.80 104.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.3 45.3 52.1 47.0 46.8 45.7 48.1 49.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 93.0 96.1 93.0 87.2 108.0 106.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -2.0 -6.0 -3.0 -11.0 -21.0 -2.0 5.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 35.0 31.0 30.0 34.0 33.0 40.0 47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 -6.0 -8.0 -4.0 -8.0 -2.0 -2.0 F N F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.92 SH172023 230403 00UTC Storm Located at : -19.80 104.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.