Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230408 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.30    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.8  20.6  20.2  23.6  26.6  23.9  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  85.0  76.0  72.0  54.0  48.0  50.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  90.0  79.0  83.0  65.0  55.0  78.0  31.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  65.0  58.0  49.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        5.2%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       25.8%       46.2%       36.0%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       27.3%       19.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       26.4%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       25.0%       13.6%
 45kt / 36h       21.0%       55.5%       38.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.9%       16.0%
 55kt / 48h       34.2%       33.8%       34.0%
 70kt / 48h       13.9%       24.7%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h       43.9%       46.4%       45.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.22

 SH182023 230408 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.30    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.8  20.6  20.2  23.6  26.6  23.9  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  65.0  58.0  49.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%