Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230409 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  19.1  18.6  22.0  28.1  20.2  25.2  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  58.0  50.0  45.0  46.0  50.0  56.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  53.0  81.0  70.0  66.0  70.0  23.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  68.0  57.0  47.0  41.0  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%       12.1%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       35.3%       59.7%       47.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       46.0%       31.2%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       46.0%       29.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       42.9%       23.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.8%       56.3%       38.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.8%       17.4%
 55kt / 48h       31.7%       38.9%       35.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%       26.6%       18.1%
 65kt / 72h       31.6%       38.7%       35.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 SH182023 230409 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  19.1  18.6  22.0  28.1  20.2  25.2  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  68.0  57.0  47.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  N  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%