Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  20.3  22.3  24.6  23.5  19.9  21.1  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  54.0  60.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  93.0  71.0  42.0  99.0  56.0  21.0  -5.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  60.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        5.5%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       34.4%       27.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       18.9%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       18.9%       12.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       18.9%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       28.8%       22.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h       19.5%       20.6%       20.1%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%       10.0%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       34.8%       23.0%       28.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 SH182023 230409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  20.3  22.3  24.6  23.5  19.9  21.1  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  60.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%