Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  18.1  22.0  24.0  20.6  22.0  21.1  21.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  45.0  45.0  47.0  51.0  56.0  63.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  57.0  67.0  81.0  51.0  33.0   7.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        6.4%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       36.2%       26.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       21.9%       15.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       21.6%       13.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       21.2%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       31.9%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.9%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.7%       24.4%       23.6%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%       10.5%        9.3%
 65kt / 72h       38.5%       24.9%       31.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 SH182023 230409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  18.1  22.0  24.0  20.6  22.0  21.1  21.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%