Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  28.9  29.6  23.5  22.5  18.2  18.0  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  50.0  56.0  68.0 133.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  65.0  90.0  57.0  63.0  22.0  19.0   6.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        8.5%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       40.1%       32.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       26.5%       19.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       26.5%       18.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       25.5%       14.5%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       33.0%       25.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.7%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%       23.9%       22.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       10.7%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       37.5%       28.1%       32.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH182023 230410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  28.9  29.6  23.5  22.5  18.2  18.0  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%