Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230410 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.5  21.3  21.8  16.5  17.4  17.7  25.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  51.0  57.0  68.0 133.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  91.0  84.0 103.0  35.0  15.0  -7.0 -15.0  N  F  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  54.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        6.7%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       29.5%       46.0%       37.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.9%       30.4%       22.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       30.4%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       28.8%       15.8%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%       46.6%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.9%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h       27.9%       35.2%       31.5%
 70kt / 48h       12.4%       20.2%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h       45.0%       37.4%       41.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH182023 230410 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.5  21.3  21.8  16.5  17.4  17.7  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  54.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%