Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.7  19.7  17.0  13.5  16.0  18.4  30.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  47.0  50.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  75.0  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  78.0  83.0  64.0   2.0 -28.0   7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  61.0  52.0  48.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.2%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       22.6%       16.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       11.1%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       10.8%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       10.8%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       21.8%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       19.5%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.4%        7.6%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       44.0%       19.9%       32.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.44

 SH182023 230410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.50    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.7  19.7  17.0  13.5  16.0  18.4  30.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  61.0  52.0  48.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%