Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230410 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.70    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.0  25.3  21.8  19.4  23.5  42.2  45.5  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  54.0  77.0  87.0  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  88.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  89.0  55.0  29.0 -15.0  -6.0  -5.0  26.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  58.0  55.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0 -16.0 -36.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        8.5%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       27.6%       44.0%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.1%       29.6%       22.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       29.6%       19.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.7%       28.8%       18.3%
 45kt / 36h       21.2%       38.0%       29.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.4%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%       24.5%       22.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%       11.1%        9.3%
 65kt / 72h       14.5%       10.4%       12.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 SH182023 230410 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.70    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.0  25.3  21.8  19.4  23.5  42.2  45.5  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  58.0  55.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  50.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -8.0 -16.0 -36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%