Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230411 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.30 121.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 17.0 14.4 13.9 15.9 18.3 24.5 42.6 N F F F F F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 62.0 78.0 71.0 42.6 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 79.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 65.0 49.0 32.0 -1.0 -20.0 16.0 6.0 48.0 N N N U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 60.0 58.0 57.0 52.0 58.0 53.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -13.0 7.0 N N N N N N VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.9% 19.4% 17.2% 25kt / 24h 45.1% 67.6% 56.4% 30kt / 24h 28.4% 63.6% 46.0% 35kt / 24h 25.2% 63.6% 44.4% 40kt / 24h 14.0% 60.5% 37.3% 45kt / 36h 34.5% 59.7% 47.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 42.7% 21.3% 55kt / 48h 36.8% 46.6% 41.7% 70kt / 48h 11.1% 24.2% 17.6% 65kt / 72h 22.9% 22.2% 22.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.58 SH182023 230411 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.30 121.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 17.0 14.4 13.9 15.9 18.3 24.5 42.6 N N U U U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 60.0 58.0 57.0 52.0 58.0 53.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -13.0 7.0 N N N N N N VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%